Statistical thinking & the ability to read and write

Statistics are hugely underused. Even when they are used, they are improperly used. Much of the bolstering of weak arguments, miscommunication and ad-hoc ideology creation performed by individuals and organisations from the industrial revolution onwards are down to poor statistical use.

Entire industries are devoted to generating statistics; duplicating monstrous amounts of effort and when they are referred to e.g. in sales pitches, organisational reports, building/product tolerances, war crimes tribunals, political and environmental manifestos, news articles and business plans – they are so heavily caveated as to make them insensible. This is by contrast to the relatively deterministic, transparent and auditable approach organisations use to produce BI to support their own business decisions. Coupling this BI with governmental statistics is often necessary for the best decision making support, so commercial BI is itself hamstrung by statistics.

There are two key reasons for this:

1) Statistics are hard to find. If you are looking for, for example, the number of people that work in London currently (a simple enough request that many service organisations would need to be aware of), you will find this close to impossible. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) does not have this on their main site. Nor does the Greater London Authority or the newly released UK government linked data site. After you have wasted maybe twenty minutes of your time, you will be reduced to searching for “how many people work in London” then trawling through answers others have given when that same question has been asked. You will receive answers but many will be by small organisations or individuals that do not quote their sources. In the worst case, you may not even find these – instead using an unofficial figure for the whole of the UK which you have had to factor down to make sense just for London. If you search hard enough you will find what you are looking for at an ONS micro-site (completely different URL to ONS) but this data is over five years old.

2) Statistics have a poor image. The blame for this, in part, may be attributed to the famous Disraeli quote – “Lies, damn lies and statistics” in which he set generations of professionals into thinking they were akin to a practicable yet modish Victorian politician by disregarding statistics and cocking-a-snoop at the establishment in favour of their own experience. Showing you are practicable with maverick tendencies while (in overtly disregarding information that may cast doubt on your decision-making) shoring yourself up from failure - are powerful incentives. By contrast, other famous statistical quotes have been forgotten (“Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write” [H.G Wells]). Short-sighted governmental data integration, hugely delayed/over-budget government data-centric projects such as the UK National Health Service’s Records System, confusion over keys statistics e.g. number of asylum seekers and high-profile data losses haven’t helped matters since.

There is also a bit of a myth that statistical interpretation is an art and that the general public can be confused – even sent entirely the wrong message by engaging in statistical understanding. Only statisticians can work with this data. Certainly there is this side to statistical analysis (basically anything involving probability, subsets, distributions and meta-statistics) but for the most part, both the general public and organisations are crying out for basic (the answer to one question without qualifiers e.g. where/if etc.) statistical information that is quite simply - on a web-site (we can all just about manage now thanks), produced by or sponsored by the Government (we need to have a basic trust level) with a creation date (we need to know if its old). If statistics are estimates, we need to know that and any proportions need to indicate the sample size. We need this since we are now sophisticated enough to know “8/10 owners said their cats preferred it” has less impact than if we are talking about a dataset of ten cats rather than 10K cats (we don’t really need this though since we’re capable of working out proportions ourselves).

We don’t want graphs since the scale can be manipulated. We don’t want averages since it is similarly open to abuse (mean, median or mode?).  If we make a mistake and relate subsets incorrectly then the people that we are communicating to may identify this and that in itself becomes part of the informational mix (perhaps we were ill-prepared and they should treat everything else we say with care). We actually don’t need sophisticated Natural Language Processing (NLP), BI or Semantic Web techniques to do this. It would be nice if it were linked data but concentrate on sourcing it first. We really are not that bothered about accuracy either (since its unlikely we are budgeting or running up accounts on governmental statistics).

Mostly we are making decisions on this information and we are happy rounding to the nearest ten percent. Are we against further immigration? Is there enough footfall traffic to open a flower shop? Do renters prefer furnished or unfurnished properties in London? Which party has the record for the least taxation? What are the major industries for a given area? We just need all the governmental data to be gathered and kept current (on at least a yearly basis) on one site with a moderately well thought-out Query By Example (QBE)-based interface. That’s it.

Reading and writing have been fundamental human rights in developed countries for decades. Broadband Internet access is fast becoming one too. Surely we need to see access to consistent, underwritten government statistics in this vein too. Where other political parties dispute the figures, they should be able to launch an inquiry into them. Too many inquiries will themselves become a statistic – open to interpretation. It is absolutely in the interest of organisations and current affair-aware individuals.  

Say hello, wave goodbye

Google Wave is/was an interesting product. It is nothing less than an attempt to oust email as our primary communications medium and therein lays its story. It is basically Instant Messaging with two additional functions - the ability to automate a response so the user doesn't really see a difference between a human and a program (or Robot). It also supports mini-applications (or Gadgets) in a similar way to iGoogle and Facebook, blurring the lines between conversations and documents. Each individual exchange (or Wave) is logged and can be added to at anytime. It is better than email because it is real-time and richer exchanges can be made. It is worse than email because using this functionality is confusing for all but the tech savvy (having multiple Robots, Gadgets and humans all involved in the same Wave is rife with issues of ownership, progression and timing). Also the success of email is due to its ubiquity - everyone can use it. Hardly anyone knows what a - Wave is or what to do with it.

It was un-ceremoniously released to the general public a couple months ago (although some developers have been using it by invitation since its tech-celebrated debut last Summer) and pronounced dead by Google this week.

In Google's own words - "Wave has not seen the user adoption we would have liked". After less than fifty working days? For such a new and cart-upsetting product? With hardly any permeation of Wave concepts to the general public, next to no marketing and no specific commercial targeting? Of course! It was inevitable that this would be the outcome if an organisation were to review a key product launch after so short a time frame with so little support. This has to fall in the space of Google testing out new concepts/obtaining user feedback, with little fanfare (and so little possibility of failure) with a view to releasing the (inevitable) email replacement again at some point in the future.

Rich real-time communication supported by an easy/interactive interface to a computer (rather than a simple search dialogue) are most definitely the way forward. At the very least, collaborative programming environments benefit from this type of interface, as does trading and social networking proper. Google Wave uses the Extensible Messaging and Presence Protocol (XMPP) protocol which enables the most efficient peer-to-peer communication currently available. These needs are not going away and neither will the constituent parts of Google Wave (in some form).

Wave Robots are perhaps the most interesting component right now. In operation, they are a bit like a Turing Test or a Twitter-bot in that they facilitate a conversational and collaborative approach to establishing (and getting) what you want. Moving past the simple search/response model we have now, it is inevitable that there will need to be some interaction, some toing-and-froing and narrowing-down for something to understand (disambiguously) what it is that you actually want. It happens in real-life and so probably needs to be modelled in virtual-life.

Wave Robots are coded relatively straight-forwardly in Java using a Wave API. This element of Wave remains significantly undersold. As an example, I developed one to allow collaborative SPARQL queries to be made against any open linked data. A few working SPARQL queries have been uploaded to give you an idea.

Queries can be collaboratively changed in real-time and results can be sent out to a named Google Docs account as a spreadsheet. Once in Google Docs, there are several charting options available to make the data more accessible. Its like a hugely more powerful Google search (for those of a technical persuasion). You can add other Robots to the Wave to allow syntax highlighting of the code e.g. Kasyntaxy (although at the moment, this doesn't seem to specifically support SPARQL). As its all Robot based, its server-side and so you can use it on your mobile device - whatever that may be. Just add querytheweb@appspot.com to your Wave contacts to use. Type "cycle" to cycle between one of two endpoints. An endpoint is basically a SPARQL query engine. The two used are both generic meaning that they are not tied to a particular data set. This means your queries will need to use the FROM clause to identify which data you are querying (by URI). Type "help" to get a list of other options.

This Wave Robot took just a day to develop in Java and was deployed to Google App Engine. It is basic but even as it stands, it is still probably the best way to access and present open linked data currently available.

However long Google maintains/runs/supports Wave, its constituent parts will, at some point, be mainstream. The demise of Google Wave is not the demise of the email replacement concept. Get ahead of the game and develop some Wave Robots now. Get used to the concepts and the working environment Google has provided until the end of this year. Your work will be able to re-surface in some new product next year.

UPDATE: Interesting Scoble commentary on Google Wave ending here.

Starbucks, here’s how you get into the outsourcing business

Hello Starbucks. You have made enormous success of the past fifteen years and have become an integral part of 21st century global cultural fabric. You have a store on the Great Wall of China, introduce new words to us like Yirgacheffe and are a bit like Viagra and The Simpsons (you aren’t technically the best but you’re easier to find and we have so much fun with you - we don’t care). We’d come to you eight-days-a-week if we could. You are to be applauded.

You have reached somewhat of an impasse though. You aren’t growing much; many of your stores are busy only at lunchtime and your brand doesn’t make us think – “that’s progressive!” anymore. Free Wifi/Foursquare deals, exclusive album sales and instant coffee will not get you those 40,000 stores you wanted a few years back. Your mantra of “A Starbucks on every corner” remains a good one. We know it’s tough out there but you just need to stick with your plan; maybe be a little bolder. Here’s what you do:

1) Recognise that you have to diversify. Your huge rent bill will surely eventually cripple you. You either need to dramatically cut costs (how? [Given your locations]), increase demand for coffee (how? [Given everyone drinks it anyway) or expand into new markets.
a. In 2008, the FM market was approximately $846BN, with approximately half ($426BN) apportioned to internal services meaning that the outsourced FM market in 2008 was worth around $420BN. It is surprisingly difficult to obtain free global branded coffee shop market sizes but for the UK at least, this is a $2.5BN market (2009). Let’s assume the UK is 5% of the global market (pretty standard), leaving a total market of $50BN. This means the FM market is roughly ten-times the size of the branded coffee-shop market.
2) Build more stores. Very roughly and taking the UK as a case in point; you have 750 stores and there are 30M people employed in the UK. With a few (contentious) assumptions, if you increased the number of stores tenfold (7,500), each store would need to accommodate just 200 people (1.5M/7,500). Obviously, it would need to take place over some years. A burgeoning senior citizen population, increased contract working and home-working will reduce the market, making the figure more manageable longer term.
a. Assume half actually work in an office (the rest in retail stores, hospitals, lumberjacks, machinists in plants, plumbers, nurses etc.). This takes the potential market down to 15M.
b. Assume half work for big name organisations that will want to maintain their own premises (taking it down to 7M - basically the SME market).
c. Assume half of those actually work in an office at any given time (the rest visiting clients, training, sick/vacation, travelling, WFH etc.) taking it down to 3M).
d. Assume you lose half the remaining people to other coffee-shops as the market is quite fragmented at the lower-end (taking it down to 1.5M).
3) Use your Starbucks card. At the moment this is used as a store card (arguably faster than paying otherwise). Put an RFID chip in and use it to track peoples employing organisations, access times and automatically bill the organisations according. You can hugely undercut existing FM services if you open-up this new revenue stream. You also expand your coffee market.
4) Build meeting rooms. Organisations need secure ad-hoc meeting rooms (HR, competitive, strategic discussions etc.). Let’s assume all new stores have one. These would need to be empty by default i.e. not having coffee drinkers in them and controlled by an online booking system. Let’s also put sophisticated video conferencing facilities in each one. Of course meetings are going to overrun and the people outside waiting for the next slot are going to have to either play nice/assertively claim their room but this happens in offices already. You might want to partner with others for larger, scheduled meetings.
5) Deploy IT Infrastructure. Cyber-cafes may be on the wane as cheap mobile devices rise but you would need to pop Internet terminals in your stores to mop up those without laptops at any given point. The shift to cloud-based computing means organisations won’t need development/file/application servers because they won’t have IT departments. Each store is also going to need a couple of wireless printer/scanner/copiers.
6) Go stealth. To avoid monstrously over-selling your brand, you are going to need to expand your stealth experiments on a wider scale. Focus individual stores on the areas they are in (creative/business/education etc.). Maybe change the decor to fit-in with local murals on the walls. It may be healthy to engender some competition between them. There would clearly need to be more variety in (interior and exterior) store design.
7) Forget the Baristas. Everyone knows this isn’t a skilled job. Stop pretending it is. It’s not like they spend years learning the correct Frappuchino for the chocolate Starbucks coin customers eat. They’re a bit like your Starbucks cards – over-engineered. Do give them training but make this in basic IT services in addition to working the coffee machine. They should need to know how to reboot the router, connect to it and any of the various wireless devices you have in your store from most portable devices, reset passwords, create accounts and escalate issues – that sort of thing. Ultimately, they’ll thank you for it. Future employers will place much more emphasis on IT service skills.
8) Culture shift slightly.
a. “Third-place”. This internal marketing needs to go. Yes – there’s a place for a safe haven, a "third place", that place outside of work and home where you know that you will be greeted with a smile and some respect. This is more than a coffee shop though. It is now a hackneyed term anyway. It was used at the Playstation 2 launch and is employed by countless gyms over the world. Is it really harder to create another market than get a good chunk of one (or both) of the existing ones?
b. Seat-saving. This needs to go. Someone cannot come in, sit down on one of your sofas and then “save” seats around them; dissuading potential users as their “friends are coming”. This prevents people from using stores for more than a quick coffee i.e. to work. Hot-desks are essential. It has to be first-come-first-served. Subtle advertising cues should be able to make this culturally frowned upon so it ceases to be an inhibitor.
c. Table Service. Your service isn’t great at lunchtimes. Queues can be large. People on laptops are dissuaded from leaving their laptop but they still want a coffee. Your new Trenta sizes may address this issue (slightly) but your smaller competitors offer table service for the same price.
d. Enhance security. You cannot have hoodies/Hells Angels/gypsies/beggars etc. associating with Senior Executives (can you?). You are likely going to need a security guard in most stores to gently dissuade them. Can’t they all do double-duty as Baristas too though? Security Barista? IT Barista? Table-service Barista? They can be more Pokémon than Borg.
e. Get out of food. You are not known for your food. Stay with chilled things that go well with hot coffee e.g. muffins, cakes, chocolates, biscotti etc. The hot breakfast sandwiches, wraps and salads all need to go. They take too long, are odorous, other brands do them better, people don’t want them in their office and will also want a break from you (their workplace) to go get them anyway. Get a food partner if you must and link it to your Starbucks card. We can work it out.

You have the cultural and economic reach to become our workplace. This isn’t something you can do quickly. It’s a goal over the next fifteen years. You can choose to move up from being an escape to being a destination. That journey will mean you need to take a leap and recognise that you’re big enough right now and that you’ll have missed service elements along the way (but that others will fill-in and contribute to the new eco-system). It may also mean you concentrate on the back-office, lose a bit of your élan/put your brand on the back-burner and cancel that order for corporation T-shirts.

A little like those faceless East-India type holding companies that keep going for hundreds of years. That’s OK though. You have certainly let your face grow long of late but to paraphrase The Beatles further; you are the coffee man. They are the coffee men. You are the water-cooler.

Why you should outsource your office to Starbucks

Office rules have relaxed a lot over the last ten years. Many office workers are now working from home regularly and when we are in the office; we are all comfortable having water-cooler discussions in a coffee-shop and taking our laptop in to work. Even Government recognises the benefit. The days of rigorously putting in a nine to five every day in a shirt and tie are all but gone. Why not go further and – do most or all of our work there; dispensing with the need for our current physical offices? Yes - it’s a little out-there but idly run with it for a while.

Yes, we are talking facilities management (FM) but – perhaps a narrower definition of it with all value-add services being done by partners. Could it actually be done? There is a definite market for professional, ad-hoc and casual working environments e.g. The Hub.

What would the benefits be?

1) Cost savings. FM has become an important industry/profession; responsible for approximately 5% of GDP in the most developed countries. After HR, FM accounts for an organisation’s greatest expenditure with 20% of total organisational expenditure. Significantly reducing this figure would allow smaller organisations to compete and stimulate growth.
2) High street utilization. High streets (or Main streets in the US) have lots of empty shop fronts. They could be re-commissioned (as Starbucks’) bringing much welcome new life and trade opportunities. This would add to our existing spaces - our homes (city/suburban), our work (downtown/business park) and the mall; maintaining a space distinct from these – a common (high street/main street). It’s ultimately about variety, possibilities, culture and escape.
3) Cultural cross-pollination. Organisations generally benefit from finding out about other organisation’s ideas/challenges. Some will consider this a drawback since they fear dilution of organisational “special sauce”. But what is this really? - People, process and IP – assets that aren’t going anywhere. It’s just the physical environment shifting.
4) Flexibility. Working in the same office is dull. Work in whichever Starbucks-office you like.

What would drawbacks be?

1) Noise. In the long-term, once Starbucks is recognised as more than a coffee shop, people will act differently there and noise will become no more of an issue than it currently is in offices. Headsets will help in the short-term.
2) Loss of status and image. If you are Swiss Re and you have spent $1BN on your gherkin building, you care about prestige, internal branding and providing a great environment for your workers. If there is a great environment elsewhere though – for free - is prestige and internal branding worth it? It is for the for big name organisations, the multi-nationals. For everyone else - no.
3) No physical storage. People keep things (coats, umbrellas etc.) at their place of work; they will need to keep them elsewhere. A small amount of lockers could be made available. HR and accounting would need to digitize all physical files. Is this a real issue? It shouldn’t be. For every filing cabinet, there’s a good reason why it should be in the cloud.
4) Team accommodation. If you are working solo or there are just a few of you then you can usually find seats together. There would be a problem accommodating project based teams (3-10) people in this way. This on-demand physical availability of teams is the biggest drawback to office-Starbucks. There would need to be a responsive real-time system that is capable of identifying empty seats together and placing a reservation on them.

Next up there will be an open letter to Starbucks asking them to consider our audacious plan.